Chroma 3 Case
47 skins
Weapon Skins
Knives & Gloves
Chroma 3 Case Odds
Per-tier drop odds based on the rarity ratios Valve disclosed for the China region: each rarity tier is 5x rarer than the one below it, and the rare special tier (knives and gloves) is 2.5x rarer than Covert. Within a tier, every skin is equally likely.
| Tier | Odds | Skins | Per skin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.92% | 7 | 11.42% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 5 | 3.20% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3 | 1.07% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.32% |
| Rare Special (knives, gloves) | 0.26% | 30 | 0.01% |
Is Chroma 3 Case worth opening?
Most cases return less than they cost to open. The numbers below are measured from market prices across the case's drops, wears, and StatTrak rolls, not marketing; drops without a live price are excluded.
Cost to open (case + key)
$5.41
Expected drop value
$2.47
Expected return
-54.3%
Chance to profit
4.3%
Median drop
$0.32
Best possible drop right now: ★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear, Ruby) at $27,272.72.
Updated Oct 28, 2026, 8:00 PM. Odds are community-verified estimates from Valve's regional disclosure; Valve does not publish global odds.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What are the odds of a knife or gloves from the Chroma 3 Case?
- About 0.26% of Chroma 3 Case openings drop a rare special item, split evenly across 30 knife and glove variants.
- Is the Chroma 3 Case worth opening?
- Opening currently costs $5.41 (case plus key) and the average drop is worth $2.47, with a 4.3% chance to profit on a single opening. In most cases buying the skin you want directly is cheaper than opening for it.