Best CS2 Cases to Open, Ranked by ROI
Weapon cases ranked by measured expected return: disclosed tier odds, the real wear distribution, StatTrak rolls, and live prices for the case, the key, and the drops. Only cases with near-complete price coverage are ranked. Most cases lose money on average; this table shows by how much.
| # | Case | Cost to open | Expected value | Expected return | Profit chance | Best drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  eSports 2013 Winter Case | $16.19 | $11.87 | -26.7% | 21.6% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 2 |  CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $15.08 | $11.03 | -26.8% | 13.4% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 3 |  Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $7.35 | $4.89 | -33.5% | 11.1% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 4 |  CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $24.25 | $15.98 | -34.1% | 19.6% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 5 |  eSports 2014 Summer Case | $14.00 | $8.69 | -37.9% | 19.4% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 6 |  Operation Broken Fang Case | $8.21 | $5.07 | -38.3% | 8.5% | ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) at $30,000.00 |
| 7 |  Glove Case | $14.47 | $8.79 | -39.2% | 5.6% | ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) at $34,216.10 |
| 8 |  Operation Wildfire Case | $5.33 | $3.21 | -39.8% | 8.9% | ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $5,598.34 |
| 9 |  Operation Hydra Case | $31.82 | $18.87 | -40.7% | 7.1% | ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) at $34,216.10 |
| 10 |  Shadow Case | $4.05 | $2.28 | -43.8% | 9.7% | ★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Factory New, StatTrak) at $6,700.00 |
| 11 |  Shattered Web Case | $6.84 | $3.83 | -44.0% | 6.5% | ★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) at $85,442.56 |
| 12 |  Horizon Case | $3.92 | $2.08 | -46.9% | 9.0% | ★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $11,999.00 |
| 13 |  Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $11.87 | $6.17 | -48.0% | 7.0% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 14 |  Falchion Case | $3.97 | $2.04 | -48.5% | 7.7% | ★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Factory New, StatTrak) at $7,200.00 |
| 15 |  Chroma Case | $6.82 | $3.49 | -48.8% | 6.7% | ★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $17,517.40 |
| 16 |  Revolver Case | $5.12 | $2.60 | -49.3% | 4.9% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 17 |  Prisma Case | $3.67 | $1.86 | -49.4% | 7.4% | ★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,095.75 |
| 18 |  Gamma Case | $5.36 | $2.67 | -50.1% | 6.1% | ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) at $2,050.00 |
| 19 |  Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $6.02 | $2.98 | -50.4% | 5.7% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 20 |  Gallery Case | $3.15 | $1.55 | -50.7% | 8.9% | ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $1,050.00 |
| 21 |  Huntsman Weapon Case | $10.43 | $5.11 | -51.0% | 5.2% | ★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $7,000.00 |
| 22 |  Chroma 2 Case | $5.94 | $2.82 | -52.6% | 5.0% | ★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $17,517.40 |
| 23 |  Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $9.82 | $4.64 | -52.7% | 4.1% | ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $13,150.00 |
| 24 |  Snakebite Case | $2.86 | $1.33 | -53.4% | 8.5% | ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) at $30,000.00 |
| 25 |  Gamma 2 Case | $5.26 | $2.42 | -53.9% | 5.0% | ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) at $2,050.00 |
| 26 |  Chroma 3 Case | $5.57 | $2.53 | -54.5% | 5.2% | ★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $17,517.40 |
| 27 |  CS20 Case | $3.39 | $1.53 | -54.8% | 7.8% | ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $7,215.34 |
| 28 |  Operation Riptide Case | $10.95 | $4.84 | -55.8% | 7.7% | ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New, StatTrak) at $3,000.00 |
| 29 |  Spectrum Case | $5.84 | $2.54 | -56.6% | 4.8% | ★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $5,800.00 |
| 30 |  Danger Zone Case | $3.58 | $1.55 | -56.6% | 7.6% | ★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $11,999.00 |
| 31 |  Prisma 2 Case | $3.62 | $1.57 | -56.8% | 5.4% | ★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,095.75 |
| 32 |  Fracture Case | $2.90 | $1.21 | -58.1% | 4.4% | ★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) at $85,442.56 |
| 33 |  Spectrum 2 Case | $5.16 | $2.12 | -58.8% | 5.2% | ★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $5,800.00 |
| 34 |  Recoil Case | $2.76 | $1.01 | -63.6% | 4.3% | ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) at $30,000.00 |
| 35 |  Clutch Case | $2.98 | $1.06 | -64.5% | 4.7% | ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) at $6,198.00 |
| 36 |  Dreams & Nightmares Case | $3.62 | $1.24 | -65.8% | 4.1% | ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New, StatTrak) at $3,000.00 |
| 37 |  Revolution Case | $2.71 | $0.88 | -67.4% | 4.0% | ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) at $6,198.00 |
| 38 |  Fever Case | $3.01 | $0.98 | -67.5% | 4.5% | ★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $1,200.00 |
| 39 |  CS:GO Weapon Case | $106.69 | $34.58 | -67.6% | 5.3% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 40 |  eSports 2013 Case | $47.12 | $15.21 | -67.7% | 3.7% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 41 |  Operation Bravo Case | $58.44 | $17.52 | -70.0% | 4.3% | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $25,000.00 |
| 42 |  Kilowatt Case | $2.65 | $0.78 | -70.5% | 4.4% | ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $1,050.00 |
Statistics computed Sep 2, 2026, 1:00 AM. Expected values exclude drops without a live price and use a $2.49 key. Cases where more than 10% of the drop probability has no live price are left out of the ranking entirely. Odds are community-verified estimates from Valve's regional disclosure. This is an informational comparison, not a reason to open cases.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the best CS2 case to open right now?
- By expected return, the eSports 2013 Winter Case currently ranks first at -26.7%. Rankings shift with market prices; statistics are recomputed hourly, and Doppler phase prices refresh on a slower multi-hour cycle.
- Do any CS2 cases have a positive expected value?
- Almost never. Once the key price is included, nearly every case returns less than it costs to open on average. The ranking is useful for comparing cases, not a reason to expect profit.
- How is the expected value calculated?
- For every case we combine the disclosed tier odds, an equal pick within each tier, the measured wear distribution remapped to each skin's float range, and the 10% StatTrak rate, then price every outcome with live market data. Outcomes without a live price are excluded and the rest reweighted; cases with too many unpriced outcomes are not ranked at all.