Winter Offensive Weapon Case
78 skins
Weapon Skins
Knives & Gloves
Winter Offensive Weapon Case Odds
Per-tier drop odds based on the rarity ratios Valve disclosed for the China region: each rarity tier is 5x rarer than the one below it, and the rare special tier (knives and gloves) is 2.5x rarer than Covert. Within a tier, every skin is equally likely.
| Tier | Odds | Skins | Per skin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.92% | 4 | 19.98% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 4 | 4.00% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3 | 1.07% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.32% |
| Rare Special (knives, gloves) | 0.26% | 65 | 0.0039% |
Is Winter Offensive Weapon Case worth opening?
Most cases return less than they cost to open. The numbers below are measured from market prices across the case's drops, wears, and StatTrak rolls, not marketing; drops without a live price are excluded.
Cost to open (case + key)
$12.22
Expected drop value
$7.61
Expected return
-37.7%
Chance to profit
10.5%
Median drop
$1.96
Best possible drop right now: Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Well-Worn, StatTrak) at $100,000.00.
Updated Jul 30, 2026, 10:00 AM. Odds are community-verified estimates from Valve's regional disclosure; Valve does not publish global odds.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What are the odds of a knife or gloves from the Winter Offensive Weapon Case?
- About 0.26% of Winter Offensive Weapon Case openings drop a rare special item, split evenly across 65 knife and glove variants.
- Is the Winter Offensive Weapon Case worth opening?
- Opening currently costs $12.22 (case plus key) and the average drop is worth $7.61, with a 10.5% chance to profit on a single opening. In most cases buying the skin you want directly is cheaper than opening for it.