CS2 Trade Up Calculator
Add 10 input skins to calculate the outcome odds, output float and expected profit
Inputs
Select input skins to build your trade-up contract.
Outcomes
How CS2 Trade Up Contracts Work
A standard trade up contract takes 10 skins of the same rarity and returns one skin of the next rarity up. StatTrak is exclusive: a StatTrak contract takes StatTrak inputs only and returns a StatTrak skin. Souvenir is not, so you can mix Souvenir inputs with regular (non-StatTrak) ones, and the Souvenir attribute is stripped from the output. The knife and glove contract is the exception. It takes 5 Covert skins instead of 10 and returns a knife or a pair of gloves.
Which skins you can get
The outcome pool comes from the collections your inputs belong to. Every collection that contributes at least one input adds all of its skins of the next rarity up to the pool. The chance of landing in a given collection is that collection's share of your inputs, and that share is then split evenly across its skins in the pool. Seven inputs from one collection and three from another means a 70% and a 30% split, not an even one.
How the output float is calculated
The wear you receive is not random. Each input float is first normalized inside that skin's own float range: normalized float = (float - minimum float) / (maximum float - minimum float). Average those 10 normalized values, then scale the average into the float range of whichever skin you hit: output float = average normalized float x (maximum float - minimum float) + minimum float. Inputs with a full 0 to 1 range normalize to themselves, so for those the raw average is the same number. Inputs with a narrower range do not: a 0.20 float on a 0.00 to 0.50 skin counts as 0.40. Skins have different float ranges, so the same set of inputs produces a different wear depending on which outcome you land. Lowering your input floats is the only control you have over the condition of the result.
How expected profit is calculated
Expected value is every outcome's market price weighted by its probability, after the marketplace fee is taken off the sale. Expected profit is that figure minus what the 10 inputs cost you. A positive expected profit means the contract pays on average over many attempts, not that any single run will pay. The calculator prices every outcome from the latest CSFloat listings, so the numbers move as the market moves.
A worked example
Seven Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested, Kilowatt Collection) and three G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested, Dreams & Nightmares Collection), every input at float 0.20. Two collections contribute, so the pool is six Classified skins: Kilowatt's three at a combined 70% and Dreams & Nightmares' three at a combined 30%. Both input skins span 0 to 1, so their floats normalize to themselves and the average normalized float is 0.20 for every outcome. The wear still differs, because the outcome float ranges do.
| Outcome | Float range | Output float | Wear | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Black LotusKilowatt | 0 to 0.70 | 0.140 | Minimal Wear | 23.3% |
| Zeus x27 | OlympusKilowatt | 0 to 0.67 | 0.134 | Minimal Wear | 23.3% |
| USP-S | JawbreakerKilowatt | 0 to 1 | 0.200 | Field-Tested | 23.3% |
| Dual Berettas | MelondramaDreams & Nightmares | 0 to 1 | 0.200 | Field-Tested | 10.0% |
| FAMAS | Rapid Eye MovementDreams & Nightmares | 0 to 1 | 0.200 | Field-Tested | 10.0% |
| MP7 | Abyssal ApparitionDreams & Nightmares | 0 to 1 | 0.200 | Field-Tested | 10.0% |
Open this contract in the calculator to see what the inputs cost and what the pool is worth at current prices.
Where to go next
If you would rather start from contracts that already pay, see the profitable Trade Ups found by the scanner, which checks every contract combination against hourly prices. For Covert inputs and knife or glove outcomes, use the knife Trade Up calculator. You can also compare opening odds instead of trading up with the case ROI ranking and the Armory Pass ROI ranking.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How does the CS2 Trade Up calculator work?
- Add 10 input skins of the same rarity, and the calculator works out every possible outcome as you go. StatTrak inputs have to stand alone, but Souvenir inputs can be mixed with regular ones. For each result it shows the probability, the output float, the wear that float lands in, and the current market price, so you can judge the contract before spending anything.
- How is the output float calculated?
- Each input float is first normalized inside its own skin's float range: normalized float = (float - minimum float) / (maximum float - minimum float). The 10 normalized values are averaged, and that average is scaled into the float range of the skin you hit: output float = average normalized float x (maximum float - minimum float) + minimum float. Inputs with a full 0 to 1 range normalize to themselves, so their raw floats can be averaged directly; a skin with a narrower range cannot, which is why a 0.20 float on a 0.00 to 0.50 skin counts as 0.40. Because skins have different float ranges, one set of inputs can produce a Minimal Wear on one outcome and a Field-Tested on another. Lower input floats are the only lever you have over the wear you get.
- How does the calculator work out expected profit?
- It prices every outcome from the latest CSFloat listings, weights each price by that outcome's probability, subtracts the marketplace fee, and then subtracts what the 10 inputs cost. A positive expected profit means the contract pays on average across many attempts. Any single contract can still lose money.
- Can I choose a specific Trade Up outcome?
- You can pin a desired outcome to see which input combinations give it the highest probability. The calculator recalculates the odds and the expected profit as you add or swap skins, so you can work towards the result you want.
- What is the difference between the calculator and the scanner?
- The calculator prices a contract you build yourself: pick the skins, set the floats, and see what comes out. The scanner works the other way round, checking every possible contract against hourly market prices and listing the ones that currently have a positive expected value. Use the scanner to find contracts, and the calculator to price one of your own.
Get new Trade Ups 12 hours early
The scanner finds profitable contracts continuously, and the finds it publishes are worth the most in the hours after they appear, before the inputs get bought up. On Standard and Member accounts a new find becomes visible 12 hours after it was found. Premium sees it immediately, here on the site as well as in the app, and gets a push notification in the app when it lands.
Premium is $3.99 a month in the SkinGrind app, with a 7-day free trial for new subscribers. Everything else on this site, including this calculator, stays free. See what each tier includes.
Android is still in testing. Join the beta to get it before the store release.
Help test the Android build
The Android app is finished and in a closed test. We want it shaken out on real devices before it goes public, because Android is hundreds of screen sizes and manufacturer skins that render the same layout differently, and that is where the surprises are.
If you play CS2 on Android, install it and use it normally for a couple of weeks, then tell us what broke. Nothing is offered in return beyond getting the app before the store release.