Chroma Case
44 skins
Weapon Skins
Knives & Gloves
Chroma Case Odds
Per-tier drop odds based on the rarity ratios Valve disclosed for the China region: each rarity tier is 5x rarer than the one below it, and the rare special tier (knives and gloves) is 2.5x rarer than Covert. Within a tier, every skin is equally likely.
| Tier | Odds | Skins | Per skin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.92% | 5 | 15.98% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 4 | 4.00% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3 | 1.07% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.32% |
| Rare Special (knives, gloves) | 0.26% | 30 | 0.01% |
Is Chroma Case worth opening?
Most cases return less than they cost to open. The numbers below are measured from market prices across the case's drops, wears, and StatTrak rolls, not marketing; drops without a live price are excluded.
Cost to open (case + key)
$6.79
Expected drop value
$3.94
Expected return
-42.0%
Chance to profit
6.9%
Median drop
$0.75
Best possible drop right now: ★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear, Ruby) at $23,638.14.
Updated Jul 30, 2026, 12:00 PM. Odds are community-verified estimates from Valve's regional disclosure; Valve does not publish global odds.
Collections in this container
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are the odds of a knife or gloves from the Chroma Case?
- About 0.26% of Chroma Case openings drop a rare special item, split evenly across 30 knife and glove variants.
- Is the Chroma Case worth opening?
- Opening currently costs $6.79 (case plus key) and the average drop is worth $3.94, with a 6.9% chance to profit on a single opening. In most cases buying the skin you want directly is cheaper than opening for it.